Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
