🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It frequently serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround wins the award. In practice, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

But the current field is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners fading and recent strugglers improving together. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still